The WP modeling technique I use is sometimes called an ‘empirical matrix.’ I took a set of play-by-play data from recent years of NCAA regular season games 1,782 games from the past 3 years—360 thousand in-game observations in all] and divided it up by home team lead and by time remaining. I simply observed the proportion of times that the home team went on to win the game.

Actual data available here

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